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A decade ago Professor Ismail Serageldin, the former World Bank Vice-President, predicted that unlike the 20th century where many wars were about oil, wars of the 21st century will be about water. "Water use, supply, control, and allocation are of consequence to survival, economic success, and quality of life”, he said. Yet UNESCO's World Water Development Report (WWDR, 2003) predicts that in the next 20 years the total amount of water available to everyone will decrease by 30 per cent. This will see environmental refugees surge towards 150 million in coming years, according to the Guardian newspaper in London - more refugees than will be created by war or political chaos. Even now, only 0.02 per cent of the earth's water is suitable for human use, despite the fact that water covers 71 per cent of the earth's surface. This has already begun to drive alliances, as well as conflicts. In the Middle East, it is estimated that up to half the water used in any of the region's countries is sourced from another state. When Turkey started building dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, Syria and Iraq formed an alliance, ignoring the previous disputes that had divided them, to confront the issue of water control. In similar vein, Egypt shares the Nile with eight other countries in Eastern and Northern Africa, including Kenya. It relies on the river for its domestic and industrial consumption. There have been occasions when Egypt has threatened to go to war over Nile water in the event that any reduction in supply compromised its national security. Water scarcity has even triggered human-wildlife conflict. In one Kenyan village, a clash between villagers and thirsty monkeys left eight apes dead and ten villagers wounded in 2000. The duel started after water tankers brought water to a drought-stricken area and monkey’s desperate for water attacked the villagers. Some scientists even now predict that clean water will become the "next oil", making countries like Canada, Chile, Norway, Colombia and Peru, the “water super-powers” of the world. However, various initiatives and agreements have been initiated to avert conflict between countries and regions. One of these is the Nile Basin Initiative which brings together the 9 countries sharing the Nile in an effort to develop and promote sustainable use of the river's water. |
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For many decades, oil has been the main source of energy worldwide, putting billion-dollar oil companies and powerful OPEC countries that collaborate to set the price of oil at the heart of the world's geopolitics. But power is shifting, with the rise of alternative power sources. The oil industry has resisted the transition. In the US, the Bush administration opposed tax credits for solar or renewable energy that were to be funded through new taxes in the oil industry. The same administration had earlier extended a $17 billion tax break to oil producers. However, other world governments have actively encouraged moves to alternative power. In Denmark, 14 per cent of national electricity supplies now come from wind generators, with that projected to rise to 30 per cent in coming years. Worldwide, alternative energy accounted for 23 per cent of the new electricity generating capacity installed in 2007, while global revenues for solar, wind power and biofuels expanded from $76bn in 2007 to $115bn last year, reported UNEP. In germany no new building can now be built without a renewable energy heating system. While, in Africa, Kenya has led the way in expanding its geothermal electricity capacity, now at 130MW. Some oil companies, too, have been going alternative, with oil company Chevron now the world's largest producer of geothermal energy. Chevron’s geothermal plants in Indonesia and the Philippines produce enough energy to power 7 million homes. Which could spell the end of a near-century of oil politics, and open the door for attention on who has what in other key resource areas. The next big candidate? Water, say political observers.
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With politics come the trappings of power, but how great should they be?The Kenyan government earned flak for being extravagant in 2006, when the Kenya National Human Rights Commission (KNHCR) reported it had spent at least Sh878m on luxury cars for ministers, assistant ministers and government officials, including Mercedes at Sh13m–Sh20m each, Toyota land cruisers at Sh10m and Range Rovers at Sh15m. The spend was enough to see 25,000 children through eight years of primary school, or provide 145,000 HIV+ people with medication for a year. The Finance Minister has now said cabinet ministers must drive cars with engines of less than 2000cc engine capacity. In the UK, cabinet ministers are given the choice between a Vauxhall Omega Elite or the Rover 75 Connoisseur, valued at Sh2.5m to Sh6m. In Rwanda, the government has sold all four wheel drive vehicles with an engine capacity of 2000cc and above, and only the President, Prime Minister, Speaker of Parliament, Senate Speaker and Supreme Court head are now entitled to a smaller government vehicle, with all other officials given loans to purchase cars of their choice. However, extravagance doesn't come in cars alone. Security can be a big and expensive display too, with US President Obama's visits characterised by Secret Service agents wearing dark suits and earpieces, bomb-sniffing dogs, counter-checking all equipment brought by journalists and contingents of regular police, as well as clearing and checking for days before. But Obama’s security detail fades in comparison to Libya’s Gaddafi. During an AU meeting in South Africa, Colonel Gaddafi, was accompanied by a 400-strong elite presidential guard – 200 of them being fully trained women complete with make-up and high heels. The Libyan leader also had 60 armored vehicles, two Boeing 707s planes, 27 sub-machine guns, 48 AK-47s , rocket-propelled grenade launchers and an electronic jamming device to thwart any possible threat. Yet, for many, the real test in extravagance is the household spending of leaders, with the embodiment of personal opulence and extravagance at the State's expense being Imelda Marcos, former first lady of the Philippines. It is said that during her husband’s era, Imelda would make five-million-dollar shopping tours in New York and Rome. Setting aside her taste for prime buildings in foreign countries, it is estimated she had $13m worth of jewellery and over 1000 pair of shoes. The trappings of power.
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Studies show that certain types of political system are inherently less stable than others. Structurally, Kenya has the political system most likely to lead to instability, and violence. About a third of the 180 nations with parliaments have two houses, an upper and a lower chamber, which both have a role in law-making. These bicameral parliaments have been shown to encompass more interests, tend toward majority-supported policies, curb the domination of policy by a few, and create greater policy and political stability. Research shows, too, that the more interest groups represented in a parliament, the less government spends. Getting any policy or spending decision through both houses requires broad majority support. Another factor in achieving political stability is the way government membership changes. Systems such as the US, which replaces a third of its Senate each year, tend to have greater stability and continuity than systems that change every member of a government on a single day. The third factor in stability and consensus is whether or not a country selects politicians on a first-past-the-post system, or through proportional representation, which ensures minority interests are represented. In Kenya, which was formed in 1963 with a bi-cameral – two house – system, later changed its system to a single house replaced every five years through first-post-the-post elections. This system, which sees the president, all parliamentary and all civil postholders elected on a single day raises the election-day stakes to the highest possible level within a democratic system, and is the most likely to induce political shocks, policy reversals and a lack of governmental continuity.
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